(China Military News cited from nationalinterest.org and by Adam Lowther, Panayotis A. Yannakogeorgos) — It’s difficult to understand China’s nuclear-weapons capability and strategy. Unlike the United States, China is not a signatory to most nuclear-weapons limitation and disarmament agreements. And it is certainly not forthcoming with information about its nuclear arsenal or development program. This leaves the world without any solid understanding of the capabilities of the Chinese missile command known as the Second Artillery Corps.
Thus, what we know about China’s nuclear weapons is incomplete and often speculative. But even with better empirical knowledge, understanding Beijing’s strategy—for nuclear weapons or other areas—requires a background in Chinese culture and history. Only then will U.S. policy makers be able to address the challenges of China’s expanding nuclear capability.
Capability
The launch of Chinese DF-5 ICBM
In addition, the PLA Navy is growing its small number of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The PLA Air Force is growing its fleet of H-6K nuclear-capable bombers (between five and ten in 2010) and developing the H-8 stealth bomber.
Although it is difficult to determine current investments in the Chinese nuclear-weapons program, there is reason to believe that the Second Artillery Corps has seen significant increases in its budget. And with the theft of U.S. nuclear-weapons-design information, China has a strong foundation from which to advance the technological capabilities of its weapons.
Chinese Strategy
In the modern Chinese military treatise The Science of Campaigns, the essence of Chinese nuclear strategy is described as lying “in the ingenious selection of targets, ingenious choice of timing opportunities, ingenious use of forces and firepower, and the ingenious application of operational methods.” This prompts several questions: Who is targeted? What is the objective? When will it happen? Where will the Chinese deploy it? And why and how will they do it?
Dr. Lowther knows better than to make silly statements like this: “Evidence suggests that China is on a pace to build an arsenal that is equal in size and capability to the U.S. arsenal—if not superior—by 2050.”
But his employer depends upon creating scary stories of threats to American hegemony.
The only real threat we face is bankrupting ourselves by creating offensive weapons while the Chinese content themselves with an inexpensive defensive capability.
Soviet Union and the Russian Federation admit to possessing an even larger nuclear arsenal than the united states. I dont see why its even a mediocre challenge for the Chinese to have done so already.